October Outlook: Temperatures near normal

By Rick Thoman
Alaska Climate Specialist
Alaska Center for Climate Assessment and Preparedness
International Arctic Research Center/University of Alaska Fairbanks

The October outlook from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center for western Alaska is quite unusual because, for most of the region, temperatures are favored to average near normal for the month.
Nearly always, if any category is favored, it’s either above normal or below normal. But in this case, near normal (for Nome Airport, a monthly average of between 28ºF and 32ºF) is considered more likely than either above or below normal.
In contrast, for the northern Seward Peninsula and the Bering Strait, the outlook favors the more typical “above normal” category. The precipitation —rain plus the water equivalent of any snow— outlook for October is simpler: neither above, near or below normal is favored anywhere in the region.
Temperature-wise, between the rapidly lengthening nights and the increasing chances of snow cover as the month proceeds, daily average temperatures fall from 37°F on the first to 24°F on Halloween: the 13 degree drop is the most for any month.
Since 1907, October temperatures have ranged from as high as 59°F in 1954 and 2016 to as low as -10°F in 1966, though in Nome sub-zero October temperatures are rare and that has not happened since 1997.
Snowfall at low elevations is normally not heavy in October. Storms with a mix of rain and snow are not uncommon, while a slight accumulation is often melted away by a subsequent rain storm.
Nome has had eight Octobers in the past 118 years with a foot or more of snow, but that's only happened once (1996) in the past 50 years.
Historically, October and early November is the peak of the coastal flood season including the severe storms of October 1913, 1945 and 2004.